4 Ways Rising Stocks Can Affect The Housing Market

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The stocks markets have been registering lots of volatility over the years, and this scares many investors a lot. This kind of panic among investors all around is bound to have great effects on to other industries too. Although there aren’t any complaints in the housing market about the same, they fear these effects are going to reach all the way deep into real estate investment too. Some things in the stock market would affect the housing market directly.

Financial Institution’s Interests And Lending Rates

The stock and the housing markets get into direct relationship through the credit people have to take up when buying homes. As most people wouldn’t afford full amounts at once, they have to pay a portion then approach their banks to cater for the rest through the credit program. Depending on the investment time and the health in domestic economies, the interest rates in these can either go up or down. The good and safe situation is when there is low volatility. Banks at this point have confidence in the borrowers and their capability to repay their loans and hence, they lower the interest rates. The high volatility in the markets on the other hand only proves uncertainty in the market; hence the banks increase their interest rates. All these changes are brought about by the increase or lowering of the stock market.

Encourage Investors In The Housing Market

There is another key correlation between the stock market volatility to an investor’s decision in investing. When the figures at the stock market go up, they encourage investors and more so people that would love to buy a home also do so then. When these figures fall, they make investors pessimistic and fearful of investing then. This is a good example of how stocks directly affect the housing market. An investor buying a home when the stock market indexes are going up can be taken as an asset that would even earn you more cash if sold off but the same bought during the low stock season feels like a liability. As the above effects take place in property buyers, there is a significant amount of such effects in the sellers too. By studying the stock markets, they would know when bets to advertise and sell their properties and when to hold back and wait. The banks as well determine their interest rates on mortgages by studying the stock market.

Demand And Supply Of The Houses Don’t Balance

The variation in the stock markets might create what investors call a housing bubble. This is a situation where builders keep building as many houses as they can, but the buyer’s demand keeps falling. Even though in falling stock markets, the interest rates are normally going up, there could be a remedy to all of this. When there are so many unsold properties compared to the number of prospective buyers, the lenders in this situation would have to change their policies and offer better terms to attract buyers. If the number of prospective buyers was higher than the properties in the market, the interest rates would have to go up to maximize the profits.

Huge Down Payments Required From The Prospective Property Buyers

When there is high volatility in the stock markets, the buyers are forced to pay up huge down payments before the financiers can approve the buyer’s mortgage request. This could be because of the low-interest rates getting charged at that time. However, the increase in interest rates discourages the taking of mortgage loans by the housing market investors. In this situation, many would rather look for funding from other sources, for instance, selling their assets. The stock market also affects this situation as well. In such a situation, the value of the property drops due to bad economic times and hence making it all hard again to sell assets and come up with enough equity to buy an investment property.

As the reasons above clearly state, it is true to say stock markets determine every move in the housing market industry. The prospective buyers would want to wait until the stocks re to his/her favor so that to make a profitable investment. The seller and the general property owners also study the market to make sure they also make profits after selling off their houses. The bank s and the financial institutions study the stocks as well so that to determine the amount of interest to install on any particular mortgage loan. They study the stocks also to determine the capability of the buyers to repay all their loans.

The Recovery of the Housing Market Prices

When the United States went through the recession in 2008, not many analysts anticipated such a prolonged period of adverse consequences. The downturn in the economy, that was primarily caused by the housing market bubble, however, is now in the rearview mirror. Or at least, that is what the latest reports created by The Standard & Poor’s Case–Shiller Home Price Indices showcase.

Before diving into the number-heavy data that is the main reason to believe how the housing market is in its “rebirth” stage, defining Case–Shiller Home Price Indices must be done. Basically, Case-Shiller indices are the so-called house price indices for the United States. The numbers are calculated by looking at a minor subset of homes and then generalizing these results on large populations sizes with matching criteria. The ones that are going to be brought up here come from the 20-city composite index as well as the national home price.

With that being said, the latest 20-city index shows a 0.5 percent monthly spike that translates into a 6.2 percent yearly increase in the house prices. The national index, similarly, demonstrated a 0.7 percent increase on a monthly level while the annual rate accumulated to the same 6.2 percent. This is exciting news for the housing industry that has been recovering since 2008 when it faced some of its darkest times.

Even though the aforementioned data clearly presents a reason to be enthusiastic about the future home prices, there is always more to the equation. Case-Shiller’s index is a very prominent tool that millions of people utilize to track real estate prices, but it has its shortcomings. This is why looking at more reports will help minimize the margin of error and facilitate accurate results.

According to Trulia, another outlet that can conduct a market analysis of real estate prices, the nation is still not completely recovered. Ralph McLaughlin, the chief economist for Trulia, indicates that only one-third of all homes have been able to go back to the prices they held before the recession. The other 66 percent can expect to reach those same levels by 2025. If one was to neglect data from an outlet like Trulia and only focus on Case-Shiller’s index, they would expose themselves to wrong interpretations masked by positive numbers.

Regardless of the discrepancies between the levels of optimism shown by Trulia and Case-Shiller’s index, one thing stands – the country is moving in the right direction when it comes to the housing industry. Even if only one in three homes is back at its pre-recession prices, this is a clear sign that the economy is getting better and negative outliers could be neglectable soon. For example, the following data can be treated as a bottom line prediction for where the United States is headed:

  • Number of large cities that have seen positive changes to home prices: 17 out of 20
  • Number of large cities that experienced home price reductions lately: 3 out of 20

Importantly, the aforementioned only applies to monthly levels. When looking at those same 20 cities, every single one of them has seen positive movement in home prices on an annual level. Thus, 100 percent of the sample size analyzed by Case-Shiller’s Index is doing better yearly, while 85 percent is even doing better monthly.

No doubt, Trulia and its chief economist Ralph McLaughlin have a great point when it comes to holding people culpable and not letting anyone get overly excited. Nevertheless, the momentum that the housing market now holds might prove to be just enough to bring back the prices from 2006 or 2007.

Sharp Upward Trend Continues in Toronto Housing Market

The United States is not the only nation experiencing the return of a booming real estate market: Our neighbors to the north are also in the midst of a similarly extended surge in the marketplace, and it is the renewed strength of the Canadian economy that has powered this upward trend in the average price of existing home sales. Our analyses indicate Toronto is perhaps the most salient example highlighting this continued upward trend, particularly since the city’s average home sale price checked in at $1.2 million in the last month, increasing at a rate representing a 28-year high.

After reviewing each category of housing within Toronto’s city limits — including detached homes, condominiums, and townhouses — it is evident that the sharp increase in the average sale price applies more or less equally to the different types of housing. Even with the 33-percent increase in prices across all housing categories encouraging a 15-percent increase in new listings put on the market, the Toronto housing supply still remains limited by any measure.

Although the sudden increase in equity would lead most economists to predict a continued increase in the number of real estate listings — thereby introducing more balance within the market — our research indicates that many homeowners are still somewhat reluctant to cash in on their gains by putting their home on the market. It is somewhat ironic, but here at Tweed Economics we believe this might be the product of the limited housing supply leaving few good options for potential sellers who wish to remain in the city of Toronto.

City officials are looking at the limited supply of real estate as an issue that may need to be addressed through some sort of government intervention. Throughout our many years working in similar markets in which limited supply issues can be overcome with off-market expertise, intervention by government entities — despite wholly good intentions — all too often leads to unintended consequences that only exacerbate an existing issue or create new, more complex issues.

Various city officials have intimated potential steps they might take to intervene, citing the current lack of affordable housing as a deterrent for first-time homebuyers who wish to live and work in Toronto. This is certainly problematic, and city officials are right to be concerned about a continued lack of supply preventing potential buyers from entering the real estate market. Without first identifying the precipitating factors and understanding how each of these factors influences the market, outside intervention will almost certainly lead to a host of newer and more complicated problems for city officials to handle.

As Toronto city officials discuss the possibility of implementing a vacant-home tax or a foreign-buyers levy in the hopes of reducing real estate speculation, it’s worth pointing out that it is typically ideal to simply allow the market to self-correct. With home values continuing to soar in Toronto, it seems likely that potential sellers in the city will ultimately decide to take advantage of a strong marketplace rather than standing on the sidelines as others reap the rewards of the sharp rise in home equity.

References:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/greater-toronto-area-faces-looming-jump-in-housing-prices-royal-lepage/article33589023

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-05/toronto-home-prices-jump-33-in-march-as-market-tightens

 

Trump’s Win Could Spark US Housing Boom, Says Yale Economist

 

Yale economist Robert Shiller believes that Donald Trump’s surprise presidential win could prove a “turning point” that catalyzes a housing boom in the US. The Nobel laureate further argued that the real estate billionaire’s landmark election indicated a shift in American attitudes toward wealth and conspicuous consumption and away from modesty and prudence.

“We used to be more into modest living,” Shiller told CNBC, with regard to the post-Recession years. “Now people are thinking, ‘[that] doesn’t work.’ You know? You have to live big-league and you’re on your way.”

While the data aren’t there to support his cultural observations, Shiller noted that such excitement and attitudes could be seen at Trump rallies and in the stock markets, which rallied following the news of Trump’s win. Indeed, there is an emerging belief that Trump’s administration may usher in preoccupation with big living and materialism, and an aspirational culture reminiscent of the 1980s, according to CNBC.com.

Shiller speculated these attitudinal changes could, in turn, stimulate spending in the housing market: “Trump is a real estate man, right? He talks about living big, living large. I can imagine that this will boost housing demand as well, among at least those who are excited by Trump,” he said to CNBC.

Shiller’s statements came on the same day that the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data came out, revealing that the 20-city property values index had risen 5.1% year-over-year in October 2016, with each of the cities seeing year-on-year gains. The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index soared by 5.6% during the same month, marking the highest margin of growth since 2014. US home prices have risen steadily due to increasing demand, higher employment, and rising incomes.

“I think we’re at a turning point. The numbers that we’re reporting today are October, before the Trump election, and everything looks different now,” the eponymous Shiller told Bloomberg Television. “There might be a Trump boom coming.”

Shiller also hastened to add that he was merely “wondering” about rather than forecasting a boom, given the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policy positions.

Trump campaigned successfully on an economic platform of lower taxes, deregulation, and massive investment in infrastructure, all of which spurred palpable excitement among investors. The Dow rose 14.4% in 2016 whereas the S&P grew by 10.8%. That being said, Shiller warned that like Coolidge, Trump may preside over a short-lived era of American prosperity which ends badly. 

References:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-27/trump-win-could-usher-in-boom-for-u-s-housing-says-shiller

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/21/americans-want-to-live-big-in-trump-era-nobel-prize-winner-says.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-27/home-prices-in-20-u-s-cities-increased-5-1-in-october

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/Economy/robert-shiller-donald-trump-living-large/2016/12/24/id/765471/

China Is Not In A Housing Bubble, Says Macquarie Economist

Contrary to popular belief, the Chinese housing market is not in the midst of a massive bubble, says Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities Ltd., according to Bloomberg. Rather, he contends that skyrocketing housing prices in China’s largest cities are the result of a shortage of supply coupled with consistent demand growth and immigration.

China’s largest cities have experienced drastic surges in housing prices in recent years. According to the New York Times- which reports that “China is in the midst of a dizzying housing bubble”- Shanghai’s average housing price has jumped by one-third in the space of a year, with Beijing and Guangzhou seeing similar increases. Shenzhen, another major Chinese city, has experienced a stunning 60% spike in housing prices within the past year.

At the same time, long-term housing loans (including mortgages) doubled their share of total official bank lending this year, growing from 20% at the beginning of the year to 40% in August, fueling fears that Chinese property is one of the biggest bubbles in history.

However, Hu notes, many smaller cities have not experienced similar housing price gains.“The difference between over investment versus mismatch is the single most important thing to keep in mind when thinking about China’s property sector, as these two views have vastly different implications for investment and government policy,” he wrote.

Hu also observes that larger cities have consistently experienced net immigration with only a limited supply of property entering the market, which leads him to declaim, “this is not a bubble; this is a shortage of supply.” Broadening the scope of focus to include smaller cities yields the surprising insight that housing has become more affordable at the national level, due in part to rising incomes.

As for the largest cities, Hu notes that continued migration into urban areas has maintained a steady floor on housing demand. At the same time, he believes that market-cooling measures imposed by municipal governments ought to mitigate at least part of the risk.

Since September 30, as many as 22 of the largest Chinese cities have passed market-tightening regulations such as raising the down payment on homes to around 30%, raising taxes on additional property purchases, and restricting non-residents from buying property. Such moves are likely driving the decline in China’s home sales that occurred in the first two weeks of October.

References:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-17/what-bubble-china-s-home-prices-driven-by-demand-investment-mismatch

http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/2029342/chinas-home-sales-decline-governments-market-cooling

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/17/business/international/china-home-price-bubble.html?_r=0

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2016/10/12/early-look-chinas-economy-appears-stable-but-watch-the-housing-bubble/