Mortgage Rates and Indicators for 2019 – What To Look Out For

Tweed-Economics
Tweed-Economics

The American Dream is something people still believe in because it was sold as one of the best financial and life choices an individual or a family could do. However, people were misled into putting their lifetime savings and most people using loans to purchase a house in which they would live and raise a family. We say they were misled because a house does not provide you with income, there are maintenance and repair expenses throughout the life of the home, and you may even be put “under water” if the home ends up being less valuable than you bought it for. For that reason in this article we will be discussing the topic of mortgage rates, indicators, and what is already happening in 2019.

Mortgage Rates and Indicators for 2019

By definition, a mortgage rate or rates are the rate of interest that is charged by the specific lender loaning you the money to purchase the property. From late 2017 through the year of 2018 the delinquency rates fell more than before. We can give the credit to our current president, Donald Trump, for increasing employment and thus providing a better employment rate which raises income and lowers the delinquency even more. This will also result in home prices increases close to 5% in 2019.

Because not every year is the same, what happened the last year will not happen in 2019. This year there are four things we advice people to watch out for if they’re going to purchase a home or giving advice to someone who will. So here they are, key indicators to follow in 2019:

  • Contribution of Residential investment to GDP growth
  • Real house prices
  • Existing home sales
  • 30-year fixed mortgage rates

The residential investment contribution to the GDP is a major indicator and connection between the real estate cycle and the business one. It is a combination of new residential construction units, but also includes money spent on new additions to existing dwellings and any remodel money.

Real house prices change and vary widely no matter what period of time you look at. Whether the prices are real or adjusted for inflation the prices will change during the business cycles as well. These house prices will affect the lending market as well and so it is imperative to stay on top of every nuance that occurs.

Another indicator of how mortgage rates can function is the number of existing home sales for any given year. If there are more home sales than previous years and the pattern seems not to be slowing down, then what will or can happen to mortgage rates is that they will slowly begin to drop. Mortgage rates drop because of the amount of loan programs available respective to the amount of buyers looking for a loan. It’s a basic economic principle of supply and demand. Vice versa, when there are thousands of people looking for mortgage loans and only a few providing the loans, the rates will be a lot higher because there’s more demand than product available.

Rates by Company

Below are some of the forecasts for four of the major residential real estate mortgage lenders, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, NAR, MBA.

MBA

First Quarter 2019, MBA Mortgage Rate Forecast: 4.8%

Second Quarter 2019, MBA Mortgage Rate Forecast: 4.9%

Third Quarter 2019, MBA Mortgage Rate Forecast: 5.0%

Fourth Quarter 2019, MBA Mortgage Rate Forecast: 5.0%

Fannie Mae

First Quarter 2019, Fannie Mae Mortgage Rate Forecast: 4.8%

Second Quarter 2019, Fannie Mae Mortgage Rate Forecast: 4.8%

Third Quarter 2019, Fannie Mae Rate Forecast: 4.8%

Fourth Quarter 2019, Fannie Mae Rate Forecast: 4.8%

Freddie Mac

First Quarter 2019, Freddie Mac Mortgage Rate Forecast: 4.9%

Second Quarter 2019, Freddie Mac Mortgage Rate Forecast: 5.0%

Third Quarter 2019, Freddie Mac Mortgage Rate Forecast: 5.2%

Fourth Quarter 2019, Freddie Mac Mortgage Rate Forecast: 5.3%

NAR

First Quarter 2019, NAR Mortgage Rate Forecast: 5.0%

Second Quarter 2019, NAR Mortgage Rate Forecast: 5.1%

Third Quarter 2019, NAR Mortgage Rate Forecast: 5.2%

Fourth Quarter 2019, NAR Mortgage Rate Forecast: 5.3%

In conclusion in this article we discussed the topic of mortgage rates as well as the indicators that will show the way in which rates either increase or decrease in any given period of time. As of right now the mortgage rate industry is looking like it did in the earlier 2000s, though not as it was in 2008. Mortgage rates increase in 2017 but began to drop in 2018 now carrying this trend into 2019. To summarize this article as well as some of the numbers shown, we can say that mortgage rates will not be a threat to the real estate industry and it can be a great thing if the inventory improves while home prices begin to flatten out.

Forecasting the 2019 Financial Market

Rusty-Tweed

As 2018 is coming to close, the state of the financial market is a hot topic. Many have made the prediction for another market crash. Reviewing the reports and trends from the 2018 quarters will help with forecasting the 2019 financial market. The Federal Reserve has an Open Market Committee who are responsible for setting targets for interest rates that have to be met in early November.

However, investors do not expect to see an increase until the mid-December conference. Therefore, investors have two things to consider:

Analyze the economic replicated data that the policymakers monitor and use the reports to create an idea of what the interest rates will increase to in the year 2019. The Fed has gathered that there will be approximately three rate increases for 2019, but several investors agree there will be only two rate increases. An important fact is the strength of the U.S. economy. Is the economy continuing to see any indications of solid economic growth or is the economy slowing down just as the people have suspected?

Increased Inflation

As for inflation, there are two different measurements to watch for such an indication of the federal rate increase to change. Without there being a drastic change from the recent 2% inflation trend then the market is headed toward an unpredictable short-term quarter.

Investors on Wall Street have been conducting surveys as well as strategists, financial advisors and retail investors with the hope that the U.S. stocks – ranging from short to long-term – will not prove to be unpredictable as the 2018 year has. Early November was the kick off for the earnings season. Investors have been conversing about how the impact of the large data variables, higher rates, increased raw material costs, lowered foreign currencies, tariffs and a decrease in demand from China. Investors are turning their heads toward 2019 predictions with this data instead of focusing on the third and fourth 2018 quarter earnings, which is not a bad idea.

Affected Gross Margins and Increased Interest Rates

Other factors for forecasting the 2019 market are the issues arising. This includes margin erosion. The margin erosion is closer to increased costs in wages and raw materials. Amazon has reported its $15 minimum wage will not interfere with the ending year quarter earnings, but there are flags indicating its effect on the 2019 financial market. Luckily, the higher costs with several companies are leaning toward increasing the prices for consumers instead. Stronger sales will create a strong margin in the market.

The increased consumer prices are another hopeful prediction for rising margins and increased revenues. In order to keep the revenue growth strong for 2019 is interest rates. If the interest rates remain higher on a permanent level, then revenue-driven earnings will rise. This may also result in the fall of valuation math. A crucial cause and effect for 2019. Tariff reports have investors on the outs with its effect. Many say tariffs are considered raw material all companies (only a select few). Those few companies have acknowledged their earnings may fall as a direct effect of tariffs.

David Zinsner commented that the expected gross margins will remain high in the first quarter of 2019. This statement was made by David in September of this year. The high margins will be linked to a healthy financial market. Now the end of the year quarters, effective September 24th, involving tariffs will have a 10 percent impact on the imports from China. The imports are estimated at $200 billion. Shifting the impact over the next three quarters is in the works.

The trade war with China has been scrutinized heavily by investors. This is a huge factor with the predictions for 2019’s financial market. The main concern is undermining the effect the trade war will have. Conservatives are hypothesizing a 25 percent tariff on imported goods from China. This would cause S&P 2019 earnings to slightly decrease from $170 to an estimated $159. This prediction suggests that 2019 fiscal earnings will be scientifically lower in comparison to 2018. As higher rates contribute to higher interest prices, the increased yields will be placed on many firms who have hefty debts.

How much of an impact does this cause in 2019? Several firms will be hit with the risks of stocks while others may see a rewarding rise with favorable stocks. This is why the prediction for increasing consumer prices is being pushed. Can the so-called market crash for 2019 come true? It is possible, but there is hope to retain a strong economy with increased stock prices

Building and Strengthening Your Financial Foundations For 2019

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2019 is upon us, and there is a growing financial concern happening with so many Americans that need to be addressed. Individuals are finding making ends meet strenuous and the wages in America don’t seem to be changing as fast as the accumulation of debt among its citizens. People are making horrible purchasing decisions, and although investing has become a wider known topic, not many are pursuing investment opportunities. All of these behaviors seem to be stemming from a “Living for today” mentality, which is dragging down the financial success of those seeking it.

With all of these elements affecting the finances of today’s hardworking people, and with drastic increases in debts per household, what’s the solution?

It’s time for people to start striving towards financial freedom by utilizing financial education tools to begin building foundations for healthier wallets. Instead of going shopping this holiday season and spending unnecessary amounts of money consuming the newest products, how about you invest in your financial future instead, to ensure a successful start to next year.

Understanding your Finances

The first step to building a solid financial foundation is understanding the current state of your finances. Are you drowning in debt? Do you have spontaneous spending habits that wreak havoc on your bank account? The health status of your funds is critical to know to remedy them and begin to build a growing financial portfolio properly.

Here are a few steps you can take to begin assessing the state of your current finances:

Monitor Money-in

What are your current streams of income and how well are they serving you? What type of monies do you receive on a regular basis that contributes to the balance of your bank account? These are essential questions to ask yourself when assessing the state of your finances. Income sources don’t necessarily have to be “jobs,” in today’s economy you can make money also providing shared services.

Do your income sources require you to spend money to make money? If so, it’s time to budget to see how much money you’re actually receiving regularly by calculating the possible expenses needed to complete your tasks. For example, if you provide ride-share services to help make ends meet, how much do you spend on gas in contrast to how much you actually earn?

Do you sell a product or service? What are the expenses that are needed to be spent regularly to produce your product or conduct your service? These are questions to consider when becoming familiar with your financial status. You may be surprised at the actual amount you earn compared to the idea you had of how much you make.

Monitor Money-out

Spending habits, bills, debt, personal care, and so many other things affect your balance on a daily, monthly, and yearly basis. These expenses have to be calculated before their time of payment so that you can adequately understand your financial state. Many individuals have expenses that are hidden and also expenses that can be controlled or eliminated altogether, freeing up monies for other uses.

Expenses can also stem from streams of income. To get to work and back home again, you have to spend on gas. When at work you may become hungry and have to purchase lunch. On the way home from work you may stop to buy groceries. Expenses arise throughout the day and being aware of them can keep them from completely ruining your bank account balance.

Monitor the money that you spend on a daily basis. Many banking apps have features which allow their users to control spending habits and expenses while providing solutions for freeing up cash from unnecessary expenses.

Create a Budget

Creating a budget can relieve the anxiety of financial uncertainty. A budget is a financial plan created by analyzing one’s finances and creating practical step-by-step instructions for achieving a financial goal. Budgets can be designed to accomplish many financial goals such as paying off debt, saving for your bucket list, or just creating more financial stability in your life.

Here are some steps for starting an effective budget:

Determine your income

To begin your budget, you must first determine how much you make on a weekly, monthly, and yearly basis. These will be the numbers you will be working to adjust each month higher than the last. Income can be determined as actual income or possible income. Actual income is the correct amount you make each month including extra funds or any monies which are added to your account.

Calculate all of your expenses

After you calculate your income, it’s time to calculate your expenses and subtract that number from your actual income. The amount of your expenses can be derived from your financial files, bank statements, receipts, and bills. It can be hard to accurately calculate the amount you spend each month without a banking app which can track your spending and bill pay. When calculating your expenses, for a more efficient budget add an extra 10 to 15 percent to the amount determined to be your expenses.

Calculate savings and investments

The number calculated from subtracting your expenses from your income should be your savings, although many consider this money to be expendable. Savings can be used to strengthen your financial foundation, and when applied to investments your savings can also grow your finances. Instead of spending this money, put it to work and create passive income by applying your savings to investment opportunities. Investment opportunities can provide a better use for your savings than the money just acquiring interest from sitting in a bank.

Set goals

Create financial goals for your budget, what is your financial mission? What are your intentions for your money within the next five years? This is the question you are asking yourself when setting your financial goals. Building a financial foundation and growing it to economic freedom should be your primary goal, while other goals will stem from this primary objective.

Record progress

Create a financial journal which records all of your monthly financial transactions to see your budget progress. By documenting your economic development, you will become inspired to create and achieve more financial goals.

Assess financial progress

As you record your progress, frequently correct financial habits that are affecting the achievement of your financial objective. Assessing progress might be to adjust your restaurant spending by cooking instead of going out to eat as frequently. Make sure to record all changes in habits which affect your budget.

Adjust budget and goals

When financial goals are accomplished; you should always adjust your budget to serve your financial growth better. Improving your budget frequently will ensure healthy financial progression and strengthen your financial foundation.

 

By applying some of these financial strategies, you can begin creating an effective financial plan that will help you to establish a secure and firm financial foundation for wealth building or just financial freedom in 2019.

How Financial Demographics Have Changed Since March 2018

Demographics could be the destiny shaper of economic growth and success of financial markets. However, this will not happen if the western economics are not ready to solve the underlying social and environmental challenges. Population growth in western countries as compared to Asian, Middle Eastern and African regions is very low, and this affects growth of private capital.

Financial markets need stability of private investors so that they can provide the government and philanthropists with supplementary support. Financial markets used to be dominated by elderly people, but today young investors are joining financial markets as early as they hit 20 years. Apart from age, there are other demographic factors that are shaping financial markets today.

Age

Traditionally, it could have been very hard for you as a potential investor to risk with the financial market if you are under 40 years of age. The reason why this was the case is that people were expected to work for several decades before they can get a promotion and earn enough income for such an investment. Things have changed a lot today, and numerous young entrepreneurs have succeeded in their twenties and therefore can afford to become investors like any other person.

There are several factors that help new businesses to prosper faster today than some decades ago. Apart from the young entrepreneurs, the older adults over the age of 70 who could have been considered ineligible to invest in the financial market are also successful investors in such investments. Despite that age used to be an important consideration when it comes to financial markets, today, it cannot be used as a limitation to do the same.

Globalization

Globalization is one of the factors that is playing a big role in the growth of the economy and different investments. Globalization is helping people to move from one state to another easily and also trade in these nation without many limitations. Previously, it was very hard for a business to expand its operations in other countries due to numerous conflicts and lack of relevant technology. However today all this has been changed by globalization and the tremendous advancement of technology among other inventions.

For instance, communication has been made so easy allowing people to continue monitoring their business even when they are away. This means that for a person to invest in financial markets in another country or when away from home, they will easily do so through a few simple clicks. Globalization is opening ways for potential investors to invest in financial markets all over the world. Previously many limitations used to deter them from doing so.

Vulnerable Groups

A few decades ago, there are groups of people who were considered ineligible to do certain things or carry out certain businesses. For instance, some careers were only considered fit for men only and women could not join such industries. People were also limited to get chances at work because of their race, religion or gender among other demographic factors. However today sexism is not something considered in the business industry as a limitation because men and women have ventured in industries that were previously dominated by women and men respectively.

People have decided to break the ceiling with an open mind so as to create more opportunities for everyone. This means that no one is limited to venture into financial markets because of their race, gender, ethnicity, religion or any other demographic. Every person is qualified as long as they have the necessary know-how and capital required to invest in financial markets.

Education

Traditionally, people had limited chances to get academic qualifications unlike it is today where People tend to obtain more college degrees and other credentials. Education has always been linked to success at work, entrepreneurship and investments because educated people have been taught more on taxation, financial statistics and technical calculations among other things. The advanced information acquired by today’s millennials will shape the financial markets because they have more know-how than older generations. This will lead to a modernized way of handling operations in the financial markets and most probably make things more efficient.

Things seem to change by day due to numerous evolvements in the world. This include changes in how people view others, growth in technology, globalization and modernization. Today, people’s demographics do not limit their success in different aspects of life because a lot has changed within the last few decades. It means that changes in demographics’ perception are reshaping financial markets and other investments.

How The 900 Point Drop In The Stock Market Will Affect Businesses

This past Thursday, the stock market officially dropped 900 points which makes the month of October the markets biggest loss since February. The numbers reported are enough to make any investor pull out. While the stocks took a sudden plunge, panic also set in for not only the investors watching but for the business. This comes unexpectedly as the blue-chip stock hit an all-time high. Technology stocks took the majority of the damage in this decline. Here are the ways that this 900-point drop will affect businesses.

Financial health is affected

When investors are looking at a business, many observe the price. When a stock price is firm, this is an indicator of the business’s financial health. A business is determined to be financially feasible by analysts to inform investors by evaluating the financial data and stock price of the business. The stock price is an indicator for determining if the business’s potentials are content or concerned. With the plunge, several businesses are at risk of not being able to raise capital because potential investors are being told by analysts or brokers that this business may not be in their best financial interest. If the stock for the business continues to fall, they could lose their current investors to, which in turn is critical to their financial health and data reports.

The looming risk of a takeover

A takeover of a business is high when the stock price falls. This is a risk because now the business’s stock price is cheaper. This negatively affects businesses because they are not making capital once the takeover is complete. To understand, the public companies can distribute their shares among thousands of shareholders who have the ability to sell whenever they choose. When organizing a takeover, the bidders have a higher percentage of being able to offer a better price to shareholders solely because the trading price is lower.

This is another reason how this 900-point drop will affect businesses. If their prices are on the cheap side and bidders can and will perform a takeover. The problem with this is that the interests that are being protected by management no longer will be because management for the company will be released. This does not apply to just bidders; another business can be keeping an eye on a declining stock price of another business to perform a takeover. The business acquiring the other is able to avoid taking a debt because they have the finances to back the acquisition.

Spending halts

As an investor, people tend to continuously spend more when their stock of the business they are investing in is on the rise. This indicates that the business is in good financial standing and so is their money. The equity markets improves in wealth when people invest in them for the business as the stocks are increasing. The formula is usually increased wealth = increased spending because outside of the stock market, investors, who are most likely consumers of the business, are actively buying the goods or services. The spending increases revenue for the businesses.

The opposite occurs when numbers drop. So, this 900-point drop has affected the equity market, the revenue, the stock price, and the spending habits of the consumers. When a consumer reviews their portfolio and sees a rapid drop in value they are not going to continue their spending habit. As stated above, an increase in spending means an increase in business revenue, but a decrease in spending means the same for the revenue. This is especially true for businesses who sell non-necessity goods and services, such as high-end vehicles or entertainment, which will cause the consumers the willingly relinquish the items if they are suddenly confined to a smaller budget.

Tech companies will be affected by the drop

Tech companies such as Caterpillar, who took the lead in the recent stock market point decline according to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The shares of such companies as Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and Netflix have been affected also. Unfortunately, Facebook, Twitter, and Alphabet, a Google-parent company, are receiving extreme governing scrutiny from the U.S. government because of the trade fight that is affecting the supply chain from China. This is due to Trump’s stern stance on Beijing. Chris Zaccarelli, who is Independent Advisor Alliance’s CIO (chief investment officer) mentioned that because of the trade war with China, tech businesses will be affected the most and need to be concerned about the rising interest rates.

Experts are chiming in and saying that this point down is a correction and not the beginning of a crash. Businesses are being informed to not panic, and do not time the market.