Chinese 10-Year Sovereign Bond Yield Surges By Record Amount

Yields on Chinese 10-year sovereign bonds soared by a record 22 basis points on Thursday hitting a 16-month high of 3.4%, prompting authorities to halt trading in some futures contracts. 10-year and 5-year government-bond future prices plunged by a record 2% and 1.2% respectively in early trading, leading yields to soar.

The global market selloff was sparked by comments from the Fed signaling a vigorous clip of interest-rate increases for 2017 and a plummeting yuan. While Wednesday’s announcement that the Fed would raise the benchmark policy rate by 0.25% had been foreseen, its promise to introduce three more next year caught many off guard.  Other factors exacerbating the selloff include concerns of frothy asset markets, accelerating capital outflows, and a liquidity crunch.

“The market was not expecting a change,” said Mike Amey, a portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co., regarding Fed’s announcement to the Wall Street Journal. “You can see that in the reaction in the market.”

The Chinese bond selloff is part of a global trend. US Treasuries have also declined amid expectations of interest rate hikes, adding negative pressure to the yuan and making Chinese bonds all the less attractive to investors.. Germany and Australian government bond yields have jumped by 0.062% and 0.2% respectively. UK yields, in contrast, declined slightly on the back of a Bank of England announcement that it would keep interest rates stable.

Bloomberg adds other factors that have reduced the appeal of debt. Both globally and in China, inflation is expected to accelerate, driving up consumer and producer prices. Moreover, the People’s Bank of China has been driving up money-market rates to spur deleveraging. In response, Chinese banks have begun deleveraging and selling off bond holdings as assets have become more expensive to fund. Bond yields, in turn, have been following money-market rates.

Overall, the short-term outlook on global economic growth has brightened since Trump’s election, given expectations of deregulation, lower taxes, and higher spending. This has also encouraged investors to move away from bonds.

References:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-halts-trading-in-key-bond-as-panicky-investors-sell-securities-1481803121

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/china-s-record-bull-run-in-bonds-is-giving-way-to-a-market-rout

http://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-rout-deepens-after-fed-rate-signals-1481794245

http://www.econotimes.com/Chinese-10-year-bonds-yields-highest-since-Nov-2015-post-Fed-hawkish-outlook-heading-towards-350-pct-mark-451758

 

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