How Demographics Will Be The Biggest Driver Of Financial Markets

The world where the financial markets are vastly used by professionals of older age is long gone. In the midst of the workforce getting younger almost daily, one can now witness anything from a retirement account to highly-complex investments being made by people in their twenties. Not to forget that it has been over 70 years since the first Baby Boomers came to the world. With that entire generation growing older, their input in the financial market is thinning and most principles of investing conservatism are slowly getting replaced with high-risk individuals who are not afraid to make unlikely purchases.

Age is an Important Factor

Throughout history, the trend of people who would achieve the level of financial freedom that enables them to make humongous investment used to be no less than 40. That is because the working industry was set up in a manner that requires someone to dedicate at least a decade and a half to collect enough promotions and bonuses to have any noticeable capital. Well, by analyzing the markets in the present, one can easily recognize countless popular individuals who achieved stardom through financial success while only in their twenties. This is something that did not happen with many generations in the 20th century as the world was battling innumerable issues that had to be prioritized. Just considering the fact that World War I, World War II, Cold War, and much more happened in the 1900s makes it perfectly logical that there was no time for young entrepreneurs to test their luck in the investing waters. Consequently, this reverse aging is making the financial markets more approachable. The long-lived stigmas and stereotypes of people who are deemed under the expected age to invest are no longer around. Meaning, one’s decisions and willingness to indulge their financial passions will be judged solely on merit, not on various external factors like age.

Globalization

One of the most important trends that are taking place is known as the globalization. The term covers everything from people migrating across the planet to economies spreading around different countries without interruption. For example, investors would seldom have opportunities to engage in trades with other countries during the 19th or even the 20th century. With so much international conflict and almost non-existent technology for personal use, reaching foreign industries was unimaginable. That has permanently been altered by the inventions that facilitated globalization. For example, someone looking to place their funds into an opportunity that appears successful does no longer have to worry about locations. Those thinking that companies doing IPOs in the United Kingdom will be profitable? They can easily buy stocks in those businesses through a few simple clicks. Such simplicity was not even deemed possible when people used to get their stock certificates mailed to them back in the 1900s. Luckily, the globalized world is opening financial markets to forever-changing demographics. This gives birth to a diversified body of investors from all over the globe.

Breaking the Glass Ceiling

Sadly, the history has imparted many glass ceilings on members of the protected groups. For instance, women were not exactly welcome to many men-operated industries in the past. This same concept applied to other demographics that were sabotaged by racially-motivated prejudices. In 2018, however, things like sexism and racism have been addressed through many political and social campaigns. Although there is a lot more room for improvement, reading about topics that cover female CEOs, per se, is no longer uncommon. This helps every industry evolve as the opportunities have been widened by ever-spreading concepts of open mind. Going back to the idea of people being evaluated based on merits, the fact that gender, race, or ethnicity are no longer used to quantify someone’s knowledge is certainly a great step forward.

Modernization

Having a statistical battle between Baby Boomers and Millennials who have a college degree is a fight that will be easily won by the Millennials. Thus, the knowledge-based demographics are also an important factor in the evolving industry of investing, trading, or leading successful entrepreneurship endeavors. People nowadays have to go through rigorous education that implies learning about things like taxes, advanced levels of math, and much more. This is not something that was available to older generations who used to run the financial markets for the past 50 years. As one glances on the upcoming century, it seems that the workforce with many tangible credentials will lead to a modernized and educated manner of operating.

2018 Housing Market Forecast

When the housing market was growing out of proportion during the years leading up to the economic crisis of 2008, the rapid growth created something that became known as the “housing bubble”. As predicted by many experts yet not enough average citizens, the entire market soon came crashing down and destroyed the short-term economy of the country. This resulted in many issues for the financial industry that was closely tied to the housing endeavors and many people were pushed into foreclosures. Now, a decade after the unfortunate downturn, the housing market seems to be showing a much healthier growth.

First, one of the reasons that the crash was inevitable was due to the growth that largely exceeded the capacity of the demand and supply. In turn, the natural equilibrium was non-existent and the only way to retrieve it was to push the “restart” button which, in this particular case, was the aforementioned crash. Nowadays, however, the housing market has been growing at much more reasonable rates that have not topped a 5-percent yearly increase in construction projects. This enables the buyers and sellers to slowly increase their operations and ease into the broad change that affects pricing models. Thus, it seems that the proper forecast for the housing market must be depicted in form of a very positive picture.

What contributes to the current growth patterns is the fact that the markets are also witnessing an increasing number of high-income rentals. Given that the most common alternative to purchasing a home is to rent one, lenders who are increasing their prices are certainly contributing to people’s decisions to obtain a mortgage. This simply showcases a case of complement goods. Meaning, when the price of one of the assets in question goes up, the relatively “low” price of the other becomes more attractive. Hence why lenders who are deciding to spike up their leasing charges are giving rise to people becoming more curious about the prospects of just buying a property for themselves.

Lastly, the long-lived streak of mortgage rates that were below 4 percent made it possible for countless would-be homeowners to actually become one. As a byproduct of the recovering economy, the banks and nonconventional lenders had their mortgage interest rates set below 4 percent for a record-shattering 26 weeks. With such a rate, those interested in a high-end liability in form of a loan were invited to obtain one as the cost-benefit ratio outweighed their prospects of continuing to pay rent every month. Ultimately, if this trend continues, it would not be surprising to see the housing market reach its heights again. This time, however, the risk of a crash would be minimal as the growth is occurring naturally.

The Recovery of the Housing Market Prices

When the United States went through the recession in 2008, not many analysts anticipated such a prolonged period of adverse consequences. The downturn in the economy, that was primarily caused by the housing market bubble, however, is now in the rearview mirror. Or at least, that is what the latest reports created by The Standard & Poor’s Case–Shiller Home Price Indices showcase.

Before diving into the number-heavy data that is the main reason to believe how the housing market is in its “rebirth” stage, defining Case–Shiller Home Price Indices must be done. Basically, Case-Shiller indices are the so-called house price indices for the United States. The numbers are calculated by looking at a minor subset of homes and then generalizing these results on large populations sizes with matching criteria. The ones that are going to be brought up here come from the 20-city composite index as well as the national home price.

With that being said, the latest 20-city index shows a 0.5 percent monthly spike that translates into a 6.2 percent yearly increase in the house prices. The national index, similarly, demonstrated a 0.7 percent increase on a monthly level while the annual rate accumulated to the same 6.2 percent. This is exciting news for the housing industry that has been recovering since 2008 when it faced some of its darkest times.

Even though the aforementioned data clearly presents a reason to be enthusiastic about the future home prices, there is always more to the equation. Case-Shiller’s index is a very prominent tool that millions of people utilize to track real estate prices, but it has its shortcomings. This is why looking at more reports will help minimize the margin of error and facilitate accurate results.

According to Trulia, another outlet that can conduct a market analysis of real estate prices, the nation is still not completely recovered. Ralph McLaughlin, the chief economist for Trulia, indicates that only one-third of all homes have been able to go back to the prices they held before the recession. The other 66 percent can expect to reach those same levels by 2025. If one was to neglect data from an outlet like Trulia and only focus on Case-Shiller’s index, they would expose themselves to wrong interpretations masked by positive numbers.

Regardless of the discrepancies between the levels of optimism shown by Trulia and Case-Shiller’s index, one thing stands – the country is moving in the right direction when it comes to the housing industry. Even if only one in three homes is back at its pre-recession prices, this is a clear sign that the economy is getting better and negative outliers could be neglectable soon. For example, the following data can be treated as a bottom line prediction for where the United States is headed:

  • Number of large cities that have seen positive changes to home prices: 17 out of 20
  • Number of large cities that experienced home price reductions lately: 3 out of 20

Importantly, the aforementioned only applies to monthly levels. When looking at those same 20 cities, every single one of them has seen positive movement in home prices on an annual level. Thus, 100 percent of the sample size analyzed by Case-Shiller’s Index is doing better yearly, while 85 percent is even doing better monthly.

No doubt, Trulia and its chief economist Ralph McLaughlin have a great point when it comes to holding people culpable and not letting anyone get overly excited. Nevertheless, the momentum that the housing market now holds might prove to be just enough to bring back the prices from 2006 or 2007.

How Will Labor Market and Job Creation Rate Influence Commercial Real Estate Projections?

Despite widespread job openings now totaling well in excess of 6 million, a lack of skilled labor possessing the qualifications needed to fulfill the responsibilities required of those openings is likely to have a far-reaching impact on the health of the labor market as well as job creation — not to mention the potential effect on the commercial real estate sector’s outlook.

With unemployment reaching its lowest percentage (4.3 percent) in more than 16 years, along with more than 80 consecutive months of positive economic gains — and an economy close to, if not already at, full employment — it is clear that the outlook for the commercial real estate sector will continue to be linked to the overall economic growth rate as well as the rate of job creation.

The positive economic indicators have inspired a greater level of confidence from members of the workforce, including those previously wary — whether warranted or not — of the potential for a sudden backslide into economic instability. Since this newfound confidence is especially apparent among the demographic of young workers still likely to be living at home with their parents, the sustained strength of the labor market is expected to have a positive influence on apartment absorption.

Due to a strong sense of confidence and stability in the economy, the youngest generation of workers is increasingly looking to rent an apartment for the first time. Although the workforce is showing indications pointing to greater levels of confidence in the strength and stability of economy, the lack of skilled workers has still had a limiting effect on new job creation.

Even though job creation numbers may be experiencing the adverse effects of a tight labor market, there is reason to believe that, despite the adverse impact, the commercial real estate market will benefit nonetheless. This optimism can be attributed to the fact that despite a substantial shortage of skilled workers to fill open positions, demand for commercial real estate currently exceeds the pace of construction.

Of course, it is fair to wonder why commercial real estate demand is still on the rise in the midst of a labor shortage in which 6 million open positions remain unfilled. This is because certain companies, including those in the professional, business, and financial services employment sectors, have adopted a recruiting strategy revolving around recent graduates for positions requiring the use of office space. Even in an economy currently enduring a significant labor shortage, the jobs created by these companies alone have spurred increases in demand for commercial office space.

It’s worth noting that the economy has not entirely avoided the drawbacks that typically accompany a labor shortage of 6 million or more, as top-line growth has undoubtedly been limited by the inability of American businesses to fill open positions with skilled workers. As it stands now, however, the labor shortage might not necessarily hinder the current rate of economic momentum. After all, the income gains associated with a 4.3 percent unemployment rate and an 8.4 percent underemployment rate — which is the lowest in the past decade — should continue to have a positive impact on economic consumption for the foreseeable future.

Strong Job Creation Numbers Inspiring Young Workers to Enter Housing Market for First Time

For an entire generation of young people, growing up during a time of economic uncertainty has had an undeniable impact on way they approach all manner of financial decisions. Members of this generation have exercised great caution while adopting a risk-averse financial philosophy, and this philosophy has in turn limited their willingness to consider entering the housing market for the first time.

The limited interest among members of this youthful demographic has had a measurable effect on the real estate industry, but it appears that the strength of current economic conditions might finally be enough to convince these young people to test the housing market. It appears that the recent reports of strong job creation numbers — along with a wealth of job openings representing a record high — have inspired a sense of confidence among the group of people least likely to act hastily based on a report of the most recently available economic statistics.

Of course, this does not mean that this youthful generation has not faced difficulties upon entering the housing market for the first time, particularly since the inventory of single-family homes available for purchase is currently at an all-time low. Combined with the fact that apartment vacancies presently stand at just under four percent (3.8 percent, to be precise), it is clear that the sudden increase in demand cannot be met given the currently available supply even when one considers that 371,000 new units are expected for delivery in the next 12 months — not to mention the fact that new apartment construction has never been higher in the past 30 years.

It is not only the residential real estate market that is experiencing the influence of the continued return of strong economic indicators, as the commercial real estate market is also dealing with a level of demand that cannot be met by the current pace of new commercial real estate construction.

This is especially true as it relates to financial services employment as well as professional and business services employment, all of which have outperformed the labor market as a whole. Since companies within these fast-growing categories have primarily targeted recent college graduates for recruitment to new, office-based positions, the demand for new commercial real estate has increased at a rapid rate greatly exceeding the current pace of commercial sector construction.

With the expectation that 2 million new jobs will be added by the close of 2017, there is some concern that a large percentage of these positions will nonetheless go unfilled due to a shortage of skilled workers available for what is now a total of 6 million job openings currently available in the United States. Keeping these and other economic figures in mind, the Fed has continued to favor a moderate monetary policy in an economy lacking any sign that it may be prone to overheating.