Recent data culled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed an unexpected drop in births in the US in 2015, which fell by 1% from 2014, contrary to the forecasts of demographic analysts. Moreover, the US fertility rate in the first quarter of 2016 fell to 59.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, tying 2013 figures for the lowest fertility rate on record. The figure translates to less than six births for every 100 women, prompting talk that America is currently mired in a baby bust.
America’s current general birth rate is 13.42 births per 1,000 citizens, according to the CIA World Factbook, a figure which is down 10% from 2007. For comparison, Mexico’s birth rate is 42% higher, or 19.02 births for every 1,000 citizens.
Closer examination of the figures reveals a dramatic change in the ages that women have children today and provide insight into the declining birthrate. There has been a precipitous drop in teenage pregnancies and pregnancies among women in their 20s, both of which have played a large role in driving down the US birthrate. To put it differently, millennials, who have not been having children, are largely responsible for the declining numbers.
A 2015 study by the Urban Institute found that the birth rate for women ages 20-29 fell by 15% between 2007 and 2012. “If these low birth rates to women in their twenties continue, the U.S. might eventually face the type of generational imbalance that currently characterizes Japan and some European countries, but it is too early to predict or worry about that eventuality,” the report noted.
Social changes have pushed women to bear fewer children and put off pregnancy until later in life. Moreover, the economic pressures exerted by the 2008 recession have likely played the biggest role in disincentivizing childbearing among millennial women. While abortion may seem like a likely culprit for this demographic shift, abortion rates have actually declined since the 1980s, according to The Wall Street Journal.
It will soon become apparent whether millennial women will eventually have more children. The most common age in the US is currently 24 or 25, according to The Wall Street Journal, which means there is a sizeable portion of millennials who may decide to become parents in a few short years.