According to Paul Ashworth, who serves in the Capital Economics as the chief U.S economist and also the winner of March Forecaster of the Month award, he mentioned that the current status of the U.S economy is doing well, but as the next few years comes by, the stimulus is going to start fading away.
Mr. Ashworth added that his team was optimistic about America’s stability, and they assumed for such a long time that Washington’s United Republican government would bring about a good amount of stimulus, which happened and they were right. The move to cut taxes and end the spending restraint has given the economy of the U.S a great boost to survive the next two years.
What is in store for the U.S economy 2019 and 2020
After the next two years, what is going to happen? Ashworth stated,” There is a growing concern that the fiscal stimulus is fading, and this is bringing about a major concern.” For 2019 and 2020, Ashworth is expecting these years to be weaker because the Federal Reserve is expected to cut the country’s interest rates in 2020.
According to Ashworth and his team, they see that the economic projections of the Federal Reserve are optimistic at growing way above the trend up to the year 2020. This projection seems to be too far-fetched if you ask Micheal Pearce who is a senior U.S economist. He continued to share his sentiments on how the fiscal stimulus will send a boost to spending and incomes for one final time, unless the economy finds a new source of supply capacity to grow the economy; otherwise, growth will start to drop.
What is expected to happen after 2020
According to economists, they expect a modest downturn in the economy which should be reversed quickly after 2020, because the expansion will take some time to end. But by the time the downturn will be ending, the U.S economy will have undergone the longest expansion in its history.
Ashworth advises that people should think about what is going to happen in the next downturn. Although they expect it to stay for a relatively short time, it won’t be as damaging as the great recession that occurred in the year 2008-2009.
Some of the reasons that might cause the economic downturn
There is a premise that Ashworth does not accept. The premise involves how the Republican fiscal plan revolves around the supply-side economics that assumes businesses have for the longest time been holding back on investing in new supply because of high taxes and regulations.
Ashworth’s argument is related to how countries that had low corporate tax never see an economic boom in their investment afterward. He added that the U.S is known to raise its capital spending because supply is starting to hinder growth, and not because companies have been set free.
There is also the issue of the trade war that is going on between the U.S and China. This kind of talk is great for politics but is bad for economics. But will be seen in the next few months is the U.S government accepting some small concessions and reign supreme on the trade wars; the same way South Korea’s case was handled and is also expected to happen with NAFTA negotiations.
The Future of the U.S Economy for the years to come
Since the Trump Administration took power, he created a positive economic sentiment that was also taken by the Republican majorities. Trump’s administration pledged that they would pursue the reform, tax cuts and policy trifecta of deregulation.
What is known is that sentiment usually goes both ways. Just like the pro-business way that Trump is using can boost the confidence of the economy, the perception of leader who is not-for-business can bring down the confidence. Since sentiments influence the behavior of people, their impact is far-reaching. But the sentiment is not a great way to measure the actual economic prospects and development.
So far, when you look at the market’s reaction to Trump’s victory, there has seen a rise in stocks to multiple highs, but that has not been the case on “hard data.” Economic forecasters have only made some modest increase in their projections.
If the confidence in the US economy does not trickle down to hard data, expectations that are not met on corporate earnings and economic growth could cause the sentiment of the financial market to slow down, which will fuel market volatility and shoot down asset prices. This scenario will sputter the US engine to cause the global economy to slow down, especially if these scenarios cause the Trump administration to come up with protectionist measures.